Journal Articles (All Issues)



Vivek Kumar Verma1, Satya Sai Srikant2

Keyword Holt winter method, Autoregressive Moving Average, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Energy Harvested Wireless Sensor Network, Solar energy


Energy harvesting plays a crucial role in extending the lifespan of wireless sensor networks deployed in unattended environments such as forest fire detection and flood detection. While solar radiation stands as the most abundant energy source, its reliability is affected by seasonal fluctuations. Consequently, a dependable solar radiation forecast becomes imperative for enhanced network planning and architecture. Utilizing statistical time series for short-term predictions in energy-harvested wireless sensor networks proves to be a swift and reliable approach. To validate the results, the NREL database is employed, and various statistical time series methods, including AR, ARMA, SARIMA, and Holt Winter, are compared based on RMSE, accuracy, and MAE. The simulations are conducted using the Python framework. This paper presents a 48-hour prediction horizon for each season, allowing for the observation of the model's effectiveness. All simulation results indicate that Holt Winter with the damped additive trend and additive seasonality outperforms other models in terms of accuracy, RMSE, and rapid response.


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Vol. 43 No. 01 (2024)